REGARDLESS OF SOLAR CONDITIONS, Es remains the "BREAD AND BUTTER" of the average 6M DXer. Think POSITIVE!!
9 Sept 2016:  Please hit REFRESH to ensure most recent data. The Es_Predict Utility will be REVISED and the latest version will be available as my time permits. Thanks & 73, Bob K1SIX (ex-WA1OUB)

K1SIX's 6M SPORADIC E INFORMATION PAGE




New Hampshire Foliage Tracker

October 18, 2015 Foliage Looking Southwest from Lower Front Deck

November 2015 Same "shot" a month later with front yard cleaned up

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY- Sometimes appears to correlate with Es and often NOT

William Hepburn's Worldwide Tropospheric Ducting Forecast Site

LIVE APRS Tropo Map for USA

CLICK to view LIVE WEATHER DATA from our Kimball Hill (FN43ad87) Station in Hillsboro Center, NH

El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities 1950 - PRESENT: Thanks to Jan Null, CCM

CLICK to view LIVE RADIO METEOR COUNTS from this site from ~ early August until ~ early May (Look for Bob Mobile_K1SIX plot after Map fully Loads)


K1SIX LONG-HAUL 50MHZ Es PROPAGATION DATA ARCHIVES

    The information below focuses on multi-hop (at least TWO or more hops) instances of 50 MHz Es across the paths of interest shown in the table,  during the Northern Hemisphere major peak summer Es season: May thru August (for Temperate Zone: See K1SIX Link under Path by Date). The information provided here is designed to assist the 6M DXer with a strong foundation of the Es data required to make an informed decision as to the best times to operate.  Note that the major peak Es season for the Southern Hemisphere also occurs during their summer months, offset from the Northern Hemisphere by six months.  Both hemispheres experience a minor, short lived peak during their winter when multi-hop propagation is possible but relatively rare. During the times when either hemisphere is experiencing a rise or fall from either their summer or winter Es season and when solar activity is high and F-Layer or TEP Propagation probability is elevated, extremely long-haul paths may be realized with Es linkage into that propagation. During these special times, E-TE-F-E Linked Propagation could even allow 50 MHz links between both hemispheres! NOTE**: Some of the PDFs below include embedded hyperlinks to allow reference to other supporting material.  

BEST CASE 50 MHz SINGLE HOP Es RANGE ESTIMATES

SOURCE OF DATA
Seasonal Probability (Summer)
Path by TIME (Diurnal)
Path by DATE
Path by YEAR
K1SIX/ WA1OUB (FN43)
2016 Eu/Af Model within Es_Predict.xls
2016 Eu/Af Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls
2016 Eu/Af Tabular Compilation
Click for 1982-2016 Eu/Af Plot
K1SIX (FN43) JA Paths
2016 Tabular Compilation
EA7KW (IM67) thru 2004
Seasonal NA Model in Es_Predict.xls
NA Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls
2004 Intensity by Date
Click for 1995 - 2004 Plot
N3DB (FM18) thru 2004
Seasonal Eu/Af Model in Es_Predict.xls
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
W3BO (FN20) thru 2002
Seasonal Eu/Af Model in Es_Predict.xls
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
Eu/Af DATA on FILE
VE3EN E. NA to Eu Paths thru 2014*
VE3EN Website & in Es_Predict.xls*
VE3EN Website & in Es_Predict.xls*
VE3EN Website*
VE3EN vs. K1SIX*
2016 METHODOLOGY COMPARISON*
K0GU (DN70) Eu/N Afr Paths**
2016 Probability Plot**
2016 Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls**
2016 Intensity by Date**
Click for 2000 - 2016 Plot**
VP9 (FM72) East
2004 Multi-hop paths EAST Diurnal Plot

VP9 (FM72) West
2004 Multi-hop W0,6 &7 Diurnal Plot

K6QXY (CM88) 2-Hop KH6 Paths
2016 Seasonal Model in Es_Predict.xls
2016 Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls
2016 Intensity By Date
Click for 1979 - 2016 Plot
K6QXY (CM88) 2-Hop KL7 Paths
2016 Probability Plot
Click for 2016 Diurnal plot
2016 Intensity By Date
Click for 1979 - 2016 Plot
K6QXY (CM88) FAR EAST Paths
2016 Seasonal Model in Es_Predict.xls
2016 Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls
2016 Seasonal Model in Es_Predict.xls
Click for 1979 - 2016 Plot
K6QXY (CM88) Eu/N Afr Paths
2016 DATA on FILE
2016 Tabular Compilation
2016 DATA on FILE
2016 DATA on FILE
KL7KY (BP51) Eu Paths***
2015 Probability Plot***
2015 Diurnal Model included in Es_Predict.xls***
2015 Intensity by Date***
Click for 2006 - 2015 Plot***
K6QXY JA vs K1SIX Eu/N Afr
 
Diurnal Comparison (2016)
 
 
NOTE: W3BO, K1SIX & N3DB data does NOT include paths to Greenland (OX). Years shown are years of latest update.
*NOTE: VE3EN Data has not been updated since 12 August 2014.
**NOTE: Effective for 2016 Es Season and beyond I must pull K0GU data off the Internet which may result in some data loss versus previous years.
***NOTE: Updates for 2016 Es Season and beyond requested. I prefer not to pull this particular data off the Internet for accuracy reasons due to the rarity for these paths.

2016 Long Haul Six Meter Es Season- Where did it go?

Fig. 2B Experimental 3+ HOP Seasonal Quality Factor Table (2016 Included in Es_Predict.xls)

Fig. 4B DERIVED SINGLE-HOP SEASONAL PROBABILITY TABLE (2016)

BASELINE 1-HOP RELATIVE PROBABILITY PLOT (Added in Es_Predict.xls vers 3.20+)

Fig. 7 2016 K1SIX Transatlantic Times Correlation Table

2016 K0GU Europe/N. Africa Times Correlation Table**

Peak F2 to Europe timing for Mutual Availability correlation

Cycle 23 6M F2 Compilation, SOME could have been via Es Linkage!


MS Excel Es_Predict.xls Utility

    For those with Microsoft Excel, the Es_Predict Utility was developed to statistically assess the best times to operate for long-haul 6M Es DX based upon much of the data in the above table. Although it is impossible to really predict when a long-haul opening may occur, it is possible to leverage upon those repeatable characteristics that occur day and time again: SEASONAL and DIURNAL statistics. This is accomplished by using a composite SEASONAL probability model and (presently) up to 8 DIURNAL models for the user to choose from depending upon their path of interest. Most models are updated on an annual basis. The result is a statistical probability calculation based upon both models that plots the probability vs. time for a given date. The output is based upon a sliding time scale keyed to Local Solar Time at the path midpoint so that a station in the midwest could use an east coast diurnal model to obtain an assessment, if desired.
In addition to an attempt at prediction, the Utility includes a path analysis tool that indicates estimated ionospheric refraction points or ground landing zones with a projection out to 5 full hops+ for those paths that are less than 5 hops, a KML file generator for use on Google Earth and a 50 MHz Es Single Hop Range calculator. Used with an understanding of the limitations based upon so many unknown variables, the avid 6M DXer may find some value using this Utility.
This Macro driven utility was coded for MS Excel 97-2003 so that it is compatible with newer versions of Excel and has been tested on both the PC and MAC platforms. It will only partially run on OPEN OFFICE freeware. It uses buttons and a friendly user interface. Feel free to give it a try. Your security settings must allow editing and Macros. Be sure to read the Help and Instructions section. You may download the latest version of "Es_Predict" here:

MS Excel Es_Predict v. 3.20 Utility updated 9/12/2015. RIGHT CLICK- Save target as

2016 Multiple Source Averaged Temperate Zone Seasonal Probability Model presently used in Es_Predict.xls


FOUR METERS (70 Mhz) TRANSATLANTIC TESTS

2016 Updated 4 Meter Transatlantic Crossband Test Results

LINK TO THE Four Meters Website FOR MORE INFORMATION about this band


RADIO METEOR COUNTING REFERENCE MATERIAL & Custom SCRIPTs/USR files

    I have found over the years that attempting to automatically count meteors via radio methods is particularly challenging. Although for intermittent periods I am able to obtain useful data, these periods are short lived due to external power line noise causing reduced counts based upon local weather conditions, Sporadic E during the major and minor Es seasons (higher frequencies of choice will reduce this), tropo and Aurora during certain periods of the year and of course- Lightning Detection! If the automated meteor counter is online and if I am available and aware that "environmentals" are causing false counts then I attempt to manually delete those hourly periods. Otherwise it's garbage in = garbage out (GIGO). Furthermore, I believe that obtaining true, scientifically valid meteor counts for the amateur is next to impossible. Sometimes double or even triple counts+ will occur from head and trail detection and the diffraction pattern from a rising and fading overdense event. Then finally there is the issue of isolating the true meteor returns from aircraft scatter (a much slower rate of Doppler). Try this at your own risk and see for yourself!

K1SIX- Jan & Feb 2014 WG2XPN/B 70.005 MHz Radio Meteor Counting Test Results

K1SIX- Jan 2014 Atlanta 67.250 MHz Radio Meteor Counting Test Results

Estimated impact of noise degradation on Sporadic Meteor Counts

An earlier Radio Meteor Counting Project I was involved with in 1999

175.250 MHz Underdense Radio Meteor Profile Tests (1999)

VIRGO- Meteor Sky View (Requires Java)

USE THE PULL-DOWN MENU BELOW TO VIEW PAST SUCCESSFUL RADIO METEOR COUNTS and REFERENCE DIURNALS

The results obtained are Path of interest, Location and Prevailing Radiant sensitive!


USEFUL ONLINE PROPAGATION RESOURCES

Northern Lights Aurora Forecast (North America)

REALTIME AURORA SPOTS from the Aurora Robot

IPS Global Real Time FoF2 Map (0 Centered)

NOAA- Space Weather Enthusiasts DASHBOARD

NOAA- Radio Communications DASHBOARD

ACTIVE Ionograms from multiple sources- SORTED by GRID LOCATOR

SolarHAM by VE3EN

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

CQ Six-50 MHz DX News (Tnx Matt OZ6OM)


RADIO RELATED LINKS and REFERENCE Material

W7GJ TRACKER MAY ALSO BE USED for SOLAR ELEVATIONS

A Model for Diurnal Effects in Multi-hop Six-Meter Es, Kennedy, 2001

SOME Jim Kennedy, K6MIO/KH6 papers are HERE but becoming difficult to find online

Es Papers from Mel Wilson, W2BOC and WA5IYX are archived here (Tnx WA5IYX)

Main WA5IYX Site with numerous archives

Mid-Latitude Sporadic-E- A Review (Michael Hawk Nov. 2001)

N3DB- Propagation Archives

Nice Find and Map Grid Square Utility (Tnx K7FRY)


PERSONAL INTEREST LINKS

Click here for AN 8-BALL HANDICAPPING EXPERIMENT

Hillsboro (NH) Independent Pool League Site

Queen City Pool League (QCPL) Around the World Site

EBOOK: History of Hillsborough, NH 1735-1921


Best 73 es Good VHF DXing,
Bob Mobile, K1SIX (ex-WA1OUB)
Hillsboro, NH 03244 USA

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